Kyrgyzstan is actively increasing its hydropower potential, positioning this area as the basis for sustainable development and the path to «green» energy. As Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev said at the 9th International Congress «Hydropower Central Asia and the Caspian 2025» in Bishkek, the country has the ability to build hydroelectric power stations with a total output of up to 142 billion kWh. According to him, the use of this potential has already increased from 10% in 2020 to 15% now, with special attention paid to small hydroelectric power plants, the capacity of which is planned to be increased from the current 48-50 MW to 400-500 MW by 2027-2028.
Officially, hydropower is proclaimed a strategic direction designed to ensure energy security, economic growth and compliance with international environmental standards. The Minister of Energy emphasized that in 2024, about 90% of all electricity in the country was generated by hydroelectric power plants, and this sector will only expand against the backdrop of the growing needs of the region. Reforms are being introduced to attract investment, existing plants are being modernized and new ones are being built, including renewable energy facilities such as solar and wind farms through public-private partnerships (PPPs).
However, there are significant challenges and potential risks of concern behind ambitious «clean green energy» plans and statements. General Director of OJSC «Chakan HPP» Shakir Saidov admitted at the same congress that the deterioration of equipment at the company’s existing small HPPs reaches 80-90%. This not only reduces production efficiency, but also carries man-made and environmental threats, requiring the attraction of significant funds from international donors for modernization.
The drive to build up capacity rapidly also raises questions about the quality of planning and environmental impact assessment. Director of the PPP Center Nurbek Anarbekin noted that, despite discussions with the Ministry of Energy on the need to prepare high-quality feasibility studies (feasibility studies), pre-feasibility studies and master plans for future projects, «for now this remains at the conversation stage». Delaying the processes of preparing and selecting sites for the construction of hydroelectric power stations, as well as the promise in the future «to fully prepare sites for investors», may indicate the risk of accelerated implementation of projects without proper environmental assessment.
Meanwhile, the construction of new hydropower facilities in Kyrgyzstan is in full swing. By the end of 2025, it is planned to commission several small hydroelectric power stations in the Issyk-Kul, Chui and Jalal-Abad regions with a total capacity of about 15 MW. The hydroelectric power stations «Boz-Uchuk» (5.4 MW), «Aksu» (4 MW) and «Issyk-Ata 2» (4.5 MW) are at the final stage. The Ministry of Energy predicts that private small hydroelectric power stations alone will generate 600 million kWh in 2025, and in total it is planned to commission 18 such stations with a total capacity of 64.2 MW.
Along with small hydroelectric power stations, large projects are also being implemented. Particular attention is drawn to the Kazarmansky cascade of hydroelectric power stations on the Naryn River, which includes four hydroelectric power stations with a total capacity of 1120 MW. According to the General Director of OJSC «Central Asian Investment Holding» Muhammet Haluk Sur, the company is at the final stage of concluding an investment agreement. The project includes the construction of hydroelectric power stations «Ala-Buga» (600 MW with a dam height of 220 m), «Kara-Bulun-1» (149 MW) and «Kara-Bulun-2» (163 MW). The scale of these structures will inevitably entail a significant anthropogenic impact on river ecosystems and surrounding areas.
The economic incentive to increase generation is not only domestic demand, but also export opportunities. As part of the CASA-1000 project, Kyrgyzstan plans to export 1.5 billion kWh of electricity annually from May to September to Afghanistan (8 cents per kWh) and Pakistan (9 cents per kWh), where there is an energy shortage in the summer. This creates additional pressure on the energy system and stimulates the accelerated construction of new capacities.
To regulate the industry, Kyrgyzstan has a law on renewable energy sources (RES). According to the 2024 amendments, the tariff for new hydroelectric power stations is 4.42 soms per 1 kWh, while for old stations it remains at 2.62 soms. General Director «Chakan HPP» Shakir Saidov clarified that the possibility of concluding contracts in foreign currency is being discussed in order to avoid tariff indexation, which also emphasizes the desire to attract external investors. However, the question remains open to what extent existing tariffs and legislation in Kyrgyzstan stimulate not only construction, but also compliance with strict environmental standards and timely modernization of outdated equipment.
Thus, the hydropower boom in Kyrgyzstan carries both prospects for strengthening energy independence and generating export revenues, as well as serious risks. The deterioration of existing infrastructure, potential problems with the quality of planning and environmental impact assessment of new, especially large, hydropower projects, as well as interference in river ecosystems itself require close public attention and a responsible approach on the part of authorities and investors, so that the pursuit of kilowatt-hours did not result in irreversible damage to the unique nature of Kyrgyzstan.
Alexander Eskendirov (Rivers.Help!)
