The region’s main water reserve was on the verge of devastation. The Shardara reservoir in Kazakhstan provides drinking water to 32 thousand city residents and provides water for watering farmland in the Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions. But now this strategic object is in critical condition, and the problem is not only in nature, but also in the decisions that people make, reports Orda.kz:
How it all started
At the beginning of 2025, the situation at the Shardarinsky reservoir looked relatively favorable. The volume of water was 4.4 billion cubic meters — this is even more than a year earlier, when the region was already facing a shortage of resources. According to experts, with proper management and coordinated operation of hydraulic structures, up to 5.2 billion cubic meters could be accumulated by the beginning of the irrigation season. Such a reserve would allow spring and summer to pass without serious interruptions, even in conditions of reduced influx.
However, by April, when mass watering began, only 4.5 billion cubic meters of water were in storage. Already at the starting point, the region was missing approximately 700 million cubic meters — of volume that would be enough to fully irrigate tens of thousands of hectares of fields or provide water to large cities for several months.
This was the first warning sign that the upcoming season would be tense and could result in a serious deficit.
By the end of April, the water level had dropped to critical values — only 15% of the total reservoir capacity. The reasons became clear after studying the documents and minutes of meetings of the Interstate Water Commission.
Discharges beyond agreements
On April 5, 2025, a meeting of the Interstate Coordination Water Commission (ICWC) was held, where they distributed how much water each country will receive from the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers during this growing season. Kazakhstan was allocated only 909 million cubic meters from the Syr Darya through the Dustlik canal. For comparison:
- Uzbekistan — 8.8 billion cubic meters,
- Tajikistan — 1.9 billion
- Kyrgyzstan — 270 million.
Then it was predicted that about 3.1–3.6 billion cubic meters of water would flow into the Shardara reservoir during the season. These figures formed the basis of the distribution. But in the summer it turned out that the real influx was less than expected. As a result, there is not enough water even to maintain the normal level of the reservoir, not to mention the full provision of agricultural fields and household needs.
At the beginning of the year, the inflow was more than a thousand cubic meters per second, in February — 900, and in March — 500. But from April 19, the figures began to fall — first to 320, then to 73 cubic meters per second. In July, the reservoir received only 42 cubic meters per second, and in June — even 31. In fact, the water stopped reaching Shardara.
Now the water shortage has become noticeable: there are interruptions both in the agricultural areas of the Turkestan region and in Shardar itself. For the city, this is a double blow — less water is supplied to both economic needs and the Shardarinskaya hydroelectric power station, which affects both the energy sector and the condition of the fish in the reservoir.
The spring decisions of the ICWC, taken under optimistic forecasts, have actually worsened the situation today. In addition, the lack of flow and redistribution of water according to approved limits is already affecting the situation in Kyzylorda. There, the shallowing of the Syr Darya and the decrease in water supply threaten both agriculture and the provision of the population. If the current rate of water supply continues, the risks for the region will only increase.
Illegal water intake
On a 15-kilometer section of the Syr Darya from the gauging station to the Shardara reservoir, at least seven pumping units were identified that operated without permits. These pumps pumped water, bypassing accounting and official limits established for the distribution of water resources. According to experts, these unauthorized water intakes alone could take tens of millions of cubic meters per season.
To understand the scale: this volume is enough to provide water to several areas during the period of peak irrigation or to fill part of the deficit that has arisen in the Kyzylorda region. The problem lies not only in the illegality of the selection itself, but also in the fact that such pumping was carried out in conditions of already critically low inflow into the reservoir. Every cubic meter that went through illegal pumps directly reduced the water supply in Shardar and reduced the chances of maintaining a stable supply to the canals feeding farmland and settlements downstream.
Rice fields contrary to prohibitions
In conditions of acute water shortages, the Ministry of Agriculture at the beginning of the season recommended that regions limit the area of moisture-loving crops, especially rice. Watering one hectare of this crop requires several times more water than most other agricultural plants, and in a low-water year such crops become an unaffordable luxury.
Despite this, in the Turkestan region the plan for rice crops was exceeded twice: instead of the provided 6.6 thousand hectares, 13.1 thousand were sown. More than a thousand contracts for water supply —a total of 1032 — were concluded without the consent of the akimat. After receiving contracts from the RSE «KazVodKhoz», the peasants were confident that their farms would be provided with irrigation water for the entire season, and began to actively plant rice. Many farmers admit: if there were no such agreements, they would choose less moisture-loving crops, which would significantly reduce the load on the Shardara reservoir and canals.
It is important to note that the RSE «KazVodKhoz» is under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation of the Republic of Kazakhstan, and the Shardara reservoir itself is under their management. It is this department that determines the procedure for distributing water, its inflows and discharges, and also decides which volumes are sent for irrigation needs and which — to other regions or reservoirs.
In terms of districts, the situation looked like this:
- Maktaaral district — 5178 hectares,
- Zhetysai district — 1518 hectares,
- Shardara district — 6453 hectares.
This increase in crops in low water conditions additionally loaded the Shardara reservoir and canals leading to the Kyzylorda region. If in normal years excess water could compensate for overspending, then in 2025 every extra thousand hectares of rice meant millions of cubic meters, which other crops and settlements lost. As a result, rice areas received priority in the distribution of resources, and other farms and villages began to experience acute water shortages.
Critical situation in August
As of August 13, only 232 million cubic meters of water remained in the Shardara reservoir — 1.127 billion less than the planned level. The vacation limit to the Kyzylkum Main Canal is almost exhausted — 95% has already been given. The watering of seven thousand hectares of cotton and two thousand hectares of rice, as well as the uninterrupted supply of drinking water to tens of thousands of residents, were under threat.
There are also over 10 species of commercial fish living in the Shardara reservoir. Total ichthyomass — about 10.8 thousand tons. If the water level drops below 200 million cubic meters, a mass extinction of about two thousand tons of fish is possible. Such a blow to the ecosystem will lead to the suspension of fishing for at least five years — this is how long it will take to restore stocks and spawning conditions. Planned stocking of fish has already been suspended — in 2025 it was planned to release 740 thousand fry, but work has been frozen. The survival rate of fry in natural conditions is only — 10%, so the losses will be irreparable in the near future.
The Shardara hydroelectric power station provides electricity to a significant part of southern Kazakhstan, including rural areas of the Turkestan region and part of Shymkent. At normal water levels, the station produces over 100 megawatts, which is enough to stably supply hundreds of thousands of residents. But with a critical drop in water levels, which is already observed, generation is capable of collapsing several times — to values at which the station can barely support the operation of the systems. In this case, there will only be enough energy to cover the station’s own needs and minimal supply to the network.
The origins of the disaster
This is the result not only of natural factors such as drought and heat waves, but also of management errors. Excessive water discharges, illegal pumps and doubling of rice crops in conditions of scarcity — all this led the region to a water crisis. If emergency measures are not taken and strict control over the use of water is introduced, Shardara risks facing autumn with minimal reserves and a real threat of a socio-economic crisis.
The situation with water supply and the operation of the Shardara reservoir raises many questions that require clarification from the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. We are talking about both the distribution and use of water resources, and about management decisions made in low water conditions. We will send an official request to the department in the near future.
Alexandra Kim (Orda.kz)
