Kyrgyzstan faced an electricity shortage in early December, which reached 3.9 billion kWh. When will the country be able to refuse to import electricity and resolve the crisis issue? And what is the role of hydropower here?

Rolling blackouts

According to the Ministry of Energy of Kyrgyzstan, electricity use in the country has reached a historical high of — 11– on December 12. Its daily consumption was 78.931 million kWh and its peak power was — 3612 MW. Due to heavy loads on electrical networks, rolling blackouts began in the country.

Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev noted that electricity consumption is currently growing at a high rate and has increased by 2–2.5 million kWh per day compared to last year. Hydroelectric power plants, including Toktogul, Shamaldy-Sayskaya and Tash-Kumyr, are capable of generating 3,460 MW/hour, while consumption is 3,600 MW/hour. Hydrogenerators OJSC «Electric stations» operate at the peak of their technical capabilities with maximum output.

President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Zhaparov named the reasons for this situation.

— The reason why there is a shortage of electricity is that not a single hydroelectric power station has been built in Kyrgyzstan in 30 years. In winter, there would not be such a crisis if we built one small hydroelectric power station with a capacity of 30 MW every year for 30 years. Over the past two years, hydroelectric power stations, as well as wind and solar power plants, have been massively built in the country, but even in this case we cannot reduce the deficit. Since 2020, many social, production and infrastructure facilities have been built, as a result of which the need for electricity increases every year. At the same time, the country’s population does not use electricity sparingly, showing indifference, he explained —.

How they will solve the problem

Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev said that the authorities intend to cover the electricity deficit this season by importing 1.5 billion kWh from Kazakhstan, 1.7 billion kWh from Turkmenistan and 800 million kWh from Uzbekistan. Despite this, there is still not enough capacity to fully cover demand.

The head of the department emphasized that existing substations are under extreme load.

— Previously, substations operated at a maximum load of 70%, which allowed them to have a power reserve. Now the load reaches 90–95%. In this regard, 5 new substations with a capacity of 110 kW were built this year, additional construction of new substations with a capacity of 500 kW is planned in the near future in Balykchy and Batken, — he said at a briefing in Bishkek.

What experts say

Doctor of Economic Sciences of Kyrgyzstan, Professor Asylbek Ayupov noted that the country is forced to import electricity from neighboring countries at market prices.

— In Kyrgyzstan, many energy-intensive high-rise buildings have been built in recent years, and the population is increasing. At the same time, electricity consumption increases sharply, which leads to rolling blackouts, the expert said.

The expert sees a possible solution to the crisis situation in the energy sector not in hydropower, but in increasing its own electricity production capacity through the construction of a thermal power plant (TPP) based on the use of local coal deposits.

— I believe that under state control it is necessary to build a thermal power plant on the basis of the Kara-Kechinskoye field, where coal is mined by open-pit mining. This makes the cost of its production lower than in other fields developed mainly by the mining method. Having studied foreign experience, it is possible to build a processing plant on site for burning coal using high technologies, providing electricity and heat to the region, — the professor expressed his opinion.

He added that simultaneously with the construction of the thermal power plant, it is necessary to build a railway that will connect the south and north of the country, with its further connection to the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan«railway project.

— The construction of thermal power plants and railways will contribute to the development of tourism in areas with picturesque nature, small and medium-sized businesses, the creation of new jobs and increased employment of the local population, — he believes.

Asylbek Ayupov also spoke about hydropower, noting that its resources are exhaustible.

— There is a shortage of water from year to year during the dry period, although it is recognized that Kyrgyzstan has rich water resources. Due to global warming, sharp melting of glaciers, and low levels of precipitation, rivers become shallow especially during hot periods. The construction of small hydroelectric power stations on them raises big questions and doubts about the production of the necessary capacities. The only major river, the Naryn River, originates in mountains whose glaciers are gradually shrinking due to climate change, the professor said.

Regarding the development of a «green» economy using wind and solar energy, he expressed the opinion that projects are very expensive and local, requiring expensive maintenance.

— renewable energy sources cannot provide electricity to large enterprises and urban areas. The idea of a «green» economy is good from an environmental point of view, but the use of renewable energy sources is only adequately possible in developed countries, where the people are solvent. In Kyrgyzstan, 30% of the population is below the poverty line, people’s incomes are low, and accordingly they will not be able to pay for high tariffs, — the professor expressed his opinion.

The head of the research department for new economics at the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Ulukman Mamytov, believes that in order to solve problems in the energy sector, it is necessary to carry out a systematic reform of development programs.

— It is necessary not to divert resources to secondary areas, but to focus on those that require increased attention, including the energy sector. Programs must be well-developed, that is, comprehensive. Starting with research work, including studying the prospects for the development of the energy industry, including hydropower, traditional or alternative energy sources, ending with long-term investment in these industries. You can also consider options for investing earned resources from the sale of the same gold in these priority sectors, updating equipment, training personnel, — he noted.

At the same time, it must be said that the Kyrgyz authorities are still trying to solve problems in the energy industry through the construction of a number of small hydroelectric power stations and the modernization of existing ones. Thus, such small hydroelectric power stations as Bala-Saruu, Kainama, Issyk-Ata, Kok-Art, Isfayram, Kurak-Tektirskaya and Kyshtutskaya are being put into operation. The Toktogul hydroelectric power station is currently undergoing a complete reconstruction, after which a total capacity of 240 MW will be added. This year, modernization of the Uch-Korgon hydroelectric power station began, after a general renovation of which 36 MW will be added. Work is underway to commission the second hydraulic unit of Kambarata HPP-2 with an additional capacity of 120 MW.

However, for now Kyrgyzstan has to buy electricity to avoid an energy collapse. In the coming 2025, as stated by the Minister of Energy, the missing 3.9 billion kWh will also be imported.

— According to intergovernmental agreements, the following will be imported into Kyrgyzstan: 1.7 billion kWh from Turkmenistan, delivery will begin on January 1, 2025; 1.7 billion kWh from Kazakhstan and Russia, the delivery schedule will be agreed upon at quarterly meetings; 500 million kWh from Uzbekistan, to date about 300 million kWh have already been supplied to the republic, — the minister said.

Let us remind you that from August 1, 2023 to December 31, 2026, a state of emergency in the energy sector was introduced in Kyrgyzstan.

Gulmira Abdrakhmanova (Kazinform)