Kyrgyzstan’s plans to significantly increase hydropower capacity raise serious concerns about the future of the country’s river ecosystems. Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibraev announced his intention to reach 405 MW of capacity through small hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) by 2027. This figure, designed to cover the electricity shortage, is only part of a larger strategy that the minister says will turn Kyrgyzstan into an electricity exporter by 2030.
The head of the energy department pointed out what he believes is a huge potential: the possibility of building small hydroelectric power stations with a capacity of 0.1 to 30 MW on 196 rivers of the country. This prospect of turning natural watercourses into cascades of dams and hydraulic turbines paints an alarming picture for the unique nature of Kyrgyzstan. The dry figures in the plans conceal the potential fragmentation of river channels, disruption of fish migration routes, changes in the hydrological regime and water balance of entire areas – factors that can cause irreparable damage to biodiversity and the sustainability of aquatic ecosystems.
There are already specific examples of the implementation of plans to develop the country’s hydropotential. The minister mentioned that the joint-stock company «Chakan HPP» commissioned a small hydroelectric power station «Bala-Saruu» with a capacity of 25 MW at the Kirov Reservoir last year. He also said that «Chakan HPP», together with a Chinese company, is building small hydroelectric power stations on the Orto-Tokoy and Papan reservoirs. According to him, hydroelectric power station projects with a capacity of 20-25 MW are being implemented with the participation of a state-owned company, while smaller stations, from 1 to 7 MW, are being built by local investors. This model of public-private partnership, strengthened by foreign participation, accelerates the development of Kyrgyzstan’s hydraulic resources, but leaves open the question of the adequacy of environmental control and compliance with environmental standards during such active construction.
Taalaibek Ibraev noted that last year small hydroelectric power stations with a total capacity of 48 MW were already put into operation in the country, which, according to him, now generate 350-400 thousand kilowatt-hours of electricity. He also shared plans for 2025, when another 60-64 MW of small hydroelectric power capacity is expected to be commissioned. This rapid pace of generation expansion raises questions: is the cumulative environmental impact of new dams properly assessed? Are the long-term effects of changes in river flows taken into account, especially in the context of climate change and the melting of glaciers feeding rivers in Kyrgyzstan?
In addition to small hydroelectric power stations, the Minister of Energy confirmed plans for the construction of large hydropower facilities, such as Kambarata HPP-1, Kazarman, Kulanak, Upper Naryn Cascade and Kambarata HPP-2. He clarified that the construction of Kambarata HPP-2 will begin this year, $110 million has been allocated for the project, a tender has been held and a winner has been determined. Large-scale projects of this kind carry even greater environmental risks associated with flooding of vast areas, changes in the microclimate, seismic activity and radical transformation of river valleys. Kyrgyzstan’s announcement of readiness to export electricity by 2030 underscores the economic motivation behind these ambitious plans, but the environmental cost of such an «energy breakthrough» remains unclear and potentially very high.
All this large-scale hydropower expansion is being presented as a path to energy independence and economic growth in Kyrgyzstan. However, accelerated development of the hydropotential of rivers without a comprehensive assessment of environmental consequences and the introduction of effective compensation measures can lead to the degradation of valuable natural complexes, loss of biodiversity and undermining the long-term environmental sustainability of the region. An open discussion and independent examination of all new hydroelectric power projects is necessary so that the desire for energy power does not ultimately turn into an environmental disaster for Kyrgyzstan.
Alexander Eskendirov (Rivers.Help!)
