In Kyrgyzstan, where for many decades the main emphasis in the energy sector has been on hydroelectric power plants, the state has launched several dozen small stations in recent years. Can these technological solutions help the country get out of the chronic energy crisis?
In recent years, Kyrgyzstan has been actively developing a network of small hydroelectric power plants —SHPPs) dozens of new facilities have been launched, and by 2030 their number is planned to increase to fifty. Will this be enough to cope with the energy deficit, which has been officially declared an emergency since April 2023?
One of the main directions for overcoming the crisis was the construction of new capacities. Although Kyrgyzstan is rich in sun and wind, the main emphasis remains on hydropower. And at first glance, this is logical, since all the rivers of the country begin on its territory, and the resource has been used for a long time.
True, far from being in full force.
According to various estimates, at present the hydraulic potential of Kyrgyzstan is very little used. President Sadyr Zhaparov recently cited figures according to which, with a total potential of 142 billion kilowatt-hours, the republic produces only about 14 billion, which corresponds to approximately 10%.
Why are small hydroelectric power stations interesting to business?
A state of emergency in the energy sector was declared almost two years ago. It also provides for some preferences for investors in «small» energy. But by that time there was interest in the construction of SHPPs in the country, mainly from private entrepreneurs.
The main reason is simple: electricity produced at SHPPs is sold at a favorable rate — the tariff for commercial subscribers is multiplied by a factor of 1.3. Until May 2024, it was about 4.42 soms (5 cents) per kilowatt-hour.
«This is an acceptable tariff», — says Kundus Kyrbasheva, chairman of the Association of Green Power Plants of the RES of the Kyrgyz Republic. According to her, cheap electricity is a thing of the past when Soviet hydroelectric power stations were built. Today, new stations are not cheap, and their products are comparable in cost to other types of «green» energy.
«Our tariff is one of the highest in the region», — she notes, adding that this factor — is an important incentive for business.
Since May 1, tariffs have increased, and so has the revenue of energy workers. Moreover, the government plans to raise prices annually by 20% until 2030 to make the energy sector self-sustaining.
But for now, the industry remains subsidized: in 2024 alone, almost 9 billion soms ($100 million) were allocated from the republican budget to cover the deficit.
Taking into account the increased tariffs, electricity generated at small hydroelectric power stations will now be sold at a price of approximately 4 soms 54 tyiyn. Business revenue will also increase accordingly, but it may be premature to talk about an increase in the sector’s net profit, entrepreneurs say. The reason — is the increase in prices for construction materials and services, which account for almost half of the cost of a small hydroelectric power station.
Plans and reality
Meanwhile, the Kyrgyz government is setting ambitious goals. By 2030, the Cabinet of Ministers plans to launch 50 new small hydroelectric power stations, including with the participation of private business.
According to President Zhaparov, today there are 40 small stations operating in the country, generating more than 312 million kilowatt-hours. Another 18 are planned to be commissioned in 2025, which will increase production to 385 million kilowatt-hours.
However, consumption is also growing: in 2024, it reached a record 18.3 billion kilowatt-hours — billion more than the year before. Hydroelectric power stations provided 12.77 billion, thermal power plants — 1.76 billion. The country had to import the rest from neighboring countries.
In December 2024, when another record for daily electricity consumption was registered, the authorities called on the population to save money and stated that this level of deficit would continue for another 3-4 years. By then, large energy projects should be implemented. One of them – Kambarata HPP-1 with a capacity of 1860 megawatts. The first unit of this hydroelectric power station is planned to be put into operation in 2028.
Don’t get hung up on hydropower
In the meantime, the energy stability of Kyrgyzstan still directly depends on the Toktogul reservoir, on which the hydroelectric power station of the same name is located. In recent years, due to climate change, the water level there has been teetering on the brink of a critical minimum. It is difficult to predict what will happen in the 2025–2026 season.
In this regard, warns Kundus Kyrbasheva, Chairman of the Association of Green Power Plants of the RES of the Kyrgyz Republic, relying only on hydropotential in the Kyrgyz energy sector is risky. The oft-quoted data that the country uses 10 percent of its hydropotential could be considered outdated, she said.
«Because river flows change, climate change occurs. Today we use up to 15–20% of hydropotential. And taking into account climate change, these data are constantly updated», she says.
Meanwhile, the expert adds, new horizons for diversification are opened by the continuing reduction in prices of other renewable energy sources, for example, falling prices for solar panels and equipment for wind farms.
«For other types of renewable energy, our potential has not been studied. That’s why we call them «alternative», although they are renewable sources. The energy sector needs to be diversified. When we depend on one source, our energy security remains vulnerable», — concludes Kyrbasheva.
Bolot Kolbaev («Radio Azattyk»)
