The Eurasian Development Bank published an analytical report in which it expressed concern about the lack of agreed plans by China, Kazakhstan and Russia for the use of water resources of the transboundary Irtysh River, which could lead to a significant water shortage in both Kazakhstan and the border regions of Russia.

Not the bottomless Irtysh

The latest study by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) «Irtysh River Basin: cross-border challenges and practical solutions» has strengthened the anxiety of experts due to the current lack of a single agreed position of China, Kazakhstan and Russia on how the water resources of this transboundary river basin will be used in the future.

The Irtysh — is the longest transboundary tributary river in the world, 4248 kilometers long and, flowing through the territory of three countries, is very important for each of them.

«This is a very large significant river of the Eurasian continent. It originates in the mountains on the border of Mongolia with China, passes through the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), through Kazakhstan, and through most of Russia», — says Arman Akhunbaev, head of the Center for Industry Analysis of the EDB Analytical Work Directorate.

According to him, the future of the Irtysh raises serious concerns, primarily among Kazakhstan and Russia. This is due to the rapid development of China’s XUAR. From 1990 to 2022, the population of the area increased by two-thirds to 25.87 million. At the same time, the gross regional product per capita increased 28 times over the same period.

«That is, this is phenomenal economic growth, which means an increase in food consumption; water is needed for industrial growth and for energy, just for drinking water supply. And, according to their plans, XUAR will develop further. A lot of money is being invested there, as this is a very strategic region of China. Well, that is, they need water», — notes Arman Akhunbaev.

According to the expert, this state of affairs could significantly affect the economies of Kazakhstan and Russia located downstream of the river. If economic growth in the XUAR continues at the same pace, water flow could decrease significantly over time.

«The average long-term period in China is formed — from 8 to 9 and a half cubic kilometers at the moment. But China is gradually increasing its water intake and could potentially take up to 7 cubic kilometers. That is, there will be about two to three cubic kilometers left for Kazakhstan maximum. In dry years this can be up to one cubic kilometer. In turn, about 25-26 cubic kilometers are formed on the territory of Kazakhstan. This is the volume that comes to the border with Russia. And there is a risk that if China begins to reduce its water supply, Kazakhstan may reduce the flow of water almost by half into the territory of the already border regions of Russia», explains Arman Akhunbaev.

Little water – many problems

Concerns, the expert believes, have very real grounds, since Kazakhstan and Russia have already assessed the preliminary risks of such a development of events for their countries.

«For Kazakhstan, the Irtysh — is 45% of agricultural production. Also, 10% of electricity is produced on the Irtysh. In Russia, as far as we understand, in the Omsk region there is a very clear understanding of the importance of this basin, because there 90% of their consumption depends on the water resources of the Irtysh», — adds Akhunbaev.

Another risk for Kazakhstan posed by China’s increased consumption of Irtysh water is that it could affect the sustainability of water supplies to a number of regions of the country.

«There are such concerns about the cities of Eastern Kazakhstan – Ust-Kamenogorsk and Semey. Pavlodar. It is even possible to influence the water supply of Astana, because it is very tightly based on the Irtysh basin through the Satpayev Canal on the one hand, and on the other — through the Yesil – Irtysh tributary», — notes Akhunbaev.

But these are not all possible consequences, the expert assures.

«There is a significant risk of shipping being cut off. It now exists on the territory of Kazakhstan, and then on Russian territory it is developed even more actively. And, naturally, if there is not enough water, the level in the river will decrease, which will affect the quality of navigation or its cessation», says Arman Akhunbaev.

Tripartite agreement: China is still against it

Given all the above risks, EDB experts are particularly concerned that there is no clear, jointly approved at the interstate level action plan for the further use of the transboundary Irtysh basin between China, Kazakhstan and Russia.

«Here the question concerns more China, which has not signed any of the international conventions on the management of transboundary water resources, although they exist and certain articles there provide the necessary level of water supply to a particular country. And here the question is how to get there. Or another, which we consider the optimal format – tripartite agreement on the Irtysh. This is what we are striving for, but China is avoiding exactly this format. He believes that he has only one partner along this river — Kazakhstan, which borders along the river, and that Russia no longer has anything to do with the Irtysh. Although, naturally, this is not so», — explains Arman Akhunbaev.

It is for this reason that Kazakhstan today has to work with its neighbors on the problems of the Irtysh in a bilateral format – separately with China and separately with Russia.

For example, certain agreements already exist with China and a number of joint actions are being implemented to ensure the safest possible level of water flow into the territory of Kazakhstan. However, due to China’s non-participation in international conventions and the absence of a trilateral treaty, there is still no confidence that they will be respected.

In relations with Russia, things are much better.

«Kazakh-Russian relations on this issue are at a very good level today. There are interstate working groups and commissions that work on joint Kazakh-Russian water resources. The Irtysh, naturally, is one of the key basins through which work is underway. (…) Regular meetings are held, there are many agreements on joint management, interaction, and exchange of information. Now even the joint construction of a hydroelectric power station with the participation of the Russian side is being discussed», — notes Arman Akhunbaev.

Why information exchange is important

The environmental issue also plays a major role in the joint use of the Irtysh basin by China, Kazakhstan and Russia. Even now, when it comes to the further possible fate of this transboundary river, the environmental situation throughout its entire basin is already causing serious concern among experts.

«In addition to the decrease in water levels in the Irtysh, the fact that there are a lot of industrial enterprises along the river plays a role. And today the environmental situation is not the most favorable. That is, all indicators for water pollution are not very good. This problem accumulates along the entire river, and very polluted water is already entering Russian territory. When the level decreases, the natural ability to self-purify water decreases. With a decrease in its volume, pollution and the concentration of harmful substances increase very sharply», — warns Akhunbaev.

Including for this reason, the EDB advocates the start of negotiations between China, Kazakhstan and Russia on the development of the so-called soft infrastructure along the Irtysh.

«Rigid infrastructure – these are canals, dams, reservoirs, hydroelectric power stations and so on. We say that it also needs to be developed and exploited. And soft infrastructure – is a joint water resources management system that develops between countries. This is joint monitoring of water levels and water pollution. Countries must understand how much water passes through and at what hydrological posts. Today there are many means for this, including the digitalization of the entire monitoring system», says Arman Akhunbaev.

The EDB calls this approach the basis for normal dialogue. According to experts, it will allow timely resolution of any emerging problems.

«If we receive signals about what is happening in the upper reaches, we will be able to take the necessary actions in time and prepare for certain phenomena a little lower. This is the same exchange of hydrological information between countries within the framework of monitoring, these are transparent regulatory mechanisms, joint scientific research, training of personnel together. A kind of dialogue on the intangible side of cooperation», — the expert notes.

A tempting alternative for China

The absence of a trilateral agreement between China, Kazakhstan and Russia on the joint use of the Irtysh and the position of the Celestial Empire, which has not yet sought to sign any international documents in this regard, does not yet make it possible to solve the problem that has arisen on the transboundary river once and for all. And the more China makes a fence out of it, the more actively the opinion that it intends to make the Irtysh its internal source will be discussed.

«There is unofficial information that «wanders» that perhaps China will even turn the Irtysh on its territory into an internal source. That is, if the need for water increases very much, he will simply take everything. This risk, which has been talked about since the Soviet period, has now intensified», — says Arman Akhunbaev.

However, Kazakhstan and Russia have something to offer their neighbors to prevent such a development of events, without slowing down the further economic development of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

Taking into account the fact that China is constantly searching for new logistics routes, it will be offered the creation of a full-fledged multimodal transport corridor «Russia-Kazakhstan-China» and use the navigable potential of the rivers of the Ob-Irtysh basin in it. This route is truly strategic for the Celestial Empire, because it can become a link between the Northern Sea and Silk Roads.

«We believe that it is the development of this corridor that can become the basis for reaching agreements on the sharing of water resources between countries. We want to show that this corridor is important not only for Kazakhstan and Russia, but it is also very important for China. If we can prove this, then it is possible that China will still agree to some kind of agreement to ensure the optimal level of reliable and safe water, including for navigation», explains Akhunbaev.

According to him, the Chinese authorities are well aware of how beneficial such a proposal is, since they have repeatedly noted that access to the Northern Sea Route is part of their plans to develop access to foreign markets. Including because this is a new, short and cheap way to deliver goods to European markets and beyond.

«If we show that this initiative is very important for the western regions of China, then perhaps he will reconsider the use of the Irtysh. Moreover, it is now very actively developing its internal water supply system for the regions, which is very connected, very complex, and powerful. Through a system of canals and water pipelines, he transfers water from surplus regions to scarce ones and is now already building such an internal system for transferring water to the XUAR», — notes Akhunbaev.

According to the expert, the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan has already discussed this project with the Chinese authorities and they, in principle, agreed with the need to develop shipping and are ready to support the proposed initiative. Within its framework, the construction of the fourth Chinese-Kazakh border crossing is even being discussed.

Alexander Miroglov (Sputnik Kazakhstan)