New residential complexes are being actively built on both banks of the Syr Darya, and the embankment itself is undergoing large-scale reconstruction. Heavy trucks compact freshly laid asphalt, and the acrid smell of bitumen can be felt from a considerable distance. The new akim of Kyzylorda, Nurzhan Akhatov, appointed in August 2024, according to Kanat Utegenov, founder of the environmental laboratory LLP ECO GUARD, is striving to make the most of his short term of office, which explains the importance of the new improvement.
«There is a lot of construction… it is visually noticeable to the population», – Utegenov told The Times of Central Asia. «Unfortunately, the economic feasibility of this is not always calculated». As an example of one of these potentially failed projects, Utegenov cites a new stadium on the left bank of the river, which risks turning into a «white elephant» – expensive but ineffective structure.
However, all this improvement depends on one critical factor, which is only partially under the control of the akim and only partially – under the control of Kazakhstan. This factor – water. At the end of April, the view from the windows of luxurious new apartments opens onto the sad sandy shores. Sandpipers methodically wander through the mud in search of worms. The dirty gray river does not so much flow as it slowly creeps to the northwest. Some of this water will reach the Northern Aral Sea, the existence of which is supported by the Kokaral Dam.
Utegenov attributes low water levels in part to climate change. «Winter has become milder and almost snowless», – he said, adding that low river levels in spring – are not uncommon. «It is at this time that rice is planted; all the water goes into irrigation canals».
Governments in the region are redoubling efforts to produce rice, said Bulat Yesekin, an expert on environmental and water policy in Central Asia. However, he points out that rice cultivation in this part of the world is incredibly inefficient. «If you consider the full irrigation cycle, it takes five tons (5,000 liters) of water to grow just one kilogram of rice», he told The Times of Central Asia. However, the Kazakh government is eager to trumpet success. The use of laser leveling technology in rice paddies has helped save more than 200 billion litres of water by distributing it more evenly. According to Kazakh state media, this led to an increase in yield per hectare of rice by approximately 60-70%.
These measures do little to convince Yesekin, who considers them nothing more than a temporary solution. «Previously, there was no such need for technology, since there was enough water. Now such technologies have become necessary, because otherwise the harvest simply cannot be grown. In countries with much higher rainfall, such as Thailand or India, rice can be grown, but there is no prospect for it. Sooner or later people will have to switch to other cultures». Yesekin argues that the use of technological «quick fixes» demonstrates the paradigm problem with the authorities. «All these technologies for saving water… their goal is not to preserve or replenish water resources, but simply to increase water intake».
The lack of focus on «water conservation» instead of «water abstraction» can be observed several hundred kilometers west of Kyzylorda, where the remnants of the Aral Sea fester like an ulcer in the heart of Central Asia. Two rivers flow into the Aral Sea: the Syr Darya and its southern sister, the Amu Darya. The flow of each of them has declined sharply over the past century, both during the Soviet period and during the era of independence.
Managing the Syr Darya’s flow requires the coordination of four countries: originating in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan, the river flows through Uzbekistan and Tajikistan before reaching Kazakhstan. Every year, these countries agree on quotas for the amount of water they can take from the river. Last year, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan agreed to install digital monitoring stations to more accurately measure these flows. For these four thirsty nations, negotiations are difficult, especially since the river passes through the densely populated Fergana Valley. Most of the Syr Darya’s waters are therefore allocated to Uzbekistan, the most populous country in its path.
Last year, thanks to unexpectedly heavy rainfall, no country came close to using its limit, and more water entered the Aral Sea than expected. Indeed, over the previous three years, the area of the North Aral Sea increased by 111 km², and its volume increased by about 17% over the same period. However, Yesekin notes that this increase in water levels is not necessarily a positive sign. «Recent years have been a little better, but experts attribute this to increased melting of glaciers. This is not very good either, because one day the melting period will end».
Water quota negotiations often involve a lot of disputes. Disagreements in the upper reaches of the Syr Darya are especially fierce, says Evgeny Simonov from the environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries. He explains that during the Soviet period, large reservoirs were built, such as the Toktogul reservoir in Kyrgyzstan, to regulate the flow of water to the lower reaches and make it more predictable. However, according to him, after gaining independence, Kyrgyzstan began to repurpose these reservoirs to meet its energy needs.
«This caused significant disruptions in water use downstream», –Simonov told The Times of Central Asia. When water is used to generate electricity in hydroelectric power plants in winter, a side effect is an increase in downstream water flow, which can cause flooding. The opposite situation is observed in summer, when there is not enough water in the lower reaches due to its accumulation in the reservoirs of the upper reaches. «Until now, upstream countries (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) have consistently refused to develop mutually enforceable agreements with their downstream neighbors, limiting their ability to distort seasonal river flows by regulating reservoirs», Simonov said, adding that the inconvenience was so great that it led Kazakhstan to build its own reservoir – Koksaraisky – to try to gain a little more control over water flow.
Simonov warns that future projects, including Kambarata HPP-1, the planned Kyrgyz reservoir, are likely to become the subject of new controversy. «To make this development safe for downstream countries, upstream neighbors need to agree on a mutually binding agreement to use the entire cascade for the common good. This has not happened yet, so further friction is possible», he said.
The history of Syr Darya is part of a broader systemic failure driven by short-term political cycles and urgent economic needs. Yesekin notes that dams and reservoirs, which are built under the pretext of adapting to climate change, but are actually built for economic and energy purposes, act like «clots» on rivers. «With each such action, we reinforce, accelerate and exacerbate the cause leading to the degradation of the entire ecosystem», he said.
Despite scientific knowledge and the availability of experts in government circles, the pressure to achieve visible results within limited political time frames narrows planning horizons to a few years, too short to address the long-term challenges of water and climate crises.
In 2023, the first global water conference in over fifty years was held in New York. It and regional summits such as last week’s international glacier conservation conference in Dushanbe are seeing a surge in rhetoric around sustainable water management. However, there is a contradiction between what Central Asian governments claim internationally and what they persecute within their countries. Most egregious is the region’s failure to break its dependence on the production of cheap cotton – a crop almost as water-intensive as rice, using four tons of water for every kilogram produced.
Without a dramatic change in water use habits throughout the region, the Syr Darya and the Aral Sea basin as a whole risk further degradation. The potential consequences, Esekin notes, could be serious: «All recommendations, advice and warnings that conflicts, war or famine will arise in three to five years are simply not taken into account. This is the main tragedy of our system».
Joe Luke Barnes (The Times of Central Asia)
