Last week, Tajik authorities announced the signing of agreements worth $812 million to complete the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power station, which could become the largest in Central Asia.
The construction of this hydroelectric power station in Tajikistan, despite the stated economic ambitions of the authorities, is causing growing concern among environmentalists and international experts. The World Bank’s recent $350 million grant for the project has only increased criticism from the environmental community. Analysts warn that large-scale interference in the natural systems of the Vakhsh River could have catastrophic consequences for the entire Central Asian region.
According to a report by the international environmental coalition “Rivers Without Borders”, the creation of a maximum-volume reservoir will change the natural flow regime of the river, which will threaten the unique tugai forests of the reserve «Tiger Beam» — UNESCO World Heritage Site. This is just one of many risks. Changing river flows will also have a negative impact on agricultural areas, home to about 7 million people in four Central Asian countries. Droughts and water scarcity could be a new reality for these regions.
In addition, the project could significantly increase greenhouse gas emissions. Experts estimate that the carbon footprint of Tajikistan’s energy system could grow by 60%, which contradicts global goals to reduce the impact of human activity on the climate.
Alternative scenarios proposed by environmentalists remain without due attention. Among them are — a reduction in the height of the dam by 70 meters, a combination of a smaller hydroelectric power station with solar generation and diversification of energy sources. However, despite these proposals, the World Bank and other financial organizations approved support for the project, limiting themselves to promises «of enhanced oversight measures». Experts note that these decisions are made without detailed analysis of alternatives, which creates a dangerous precedent for future projects.
The situation around the Rogun hydroelectric power station demonstrates the classic conflict between the desire for economic development and the need to maintain environmental sustainability. The Tajik government continues to promote the project as a key element of the country’s energy security, but ignoring environmental risks calls into question the long-term feasibility of such investments.
Experts insist on the need for a more open dialogue involving all stakeholders, including local communities, environmentalists and international organizations. Without this, the project could turn from a symbol of progress into a source of environmental crisis, the consequences of which will be felt for decades.
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