Tajikistan, a country with enormous hydropower resources, is making a decisive bet on «big water», directing its main efforts and international investments to the development of hydroelectric power plants (HPPs). However, according to a new global report «Tracking SDG 7: Energy Progress Report 2025», prepared by leading global organizations including the World Bank and the International Energy Agency, such a strategy could lead to the loss of equally significant opportunities in the field of solar and wind energy. While the world is experiencing a boom in photovoltaics and wind generation, Tajikistan risks being left out of these key trends, posing potential risks to its energy security and long-term sustainable development.
The report highlights a global trend: renewable energy sources are rapidly increasing their share of the global energy mix, with solar and wind power plants being the main driving force behind this growth in 2023. Investment in solar energy reached a record $9.44 billion, accounting for 44% of total clean energy financing in developing countries. This is the highest figure on record. Against this background, Tajikistan’s strategy, focused almost exclusively on hydroelectric power plants, looks like a bold but risky step. On the one hand, the country aims to become a regional hydropower giant by exporting surplus electricity to its neighbors. International financial flows confirm this course: the report mentions the financing of new hydropower projects in Tajikistan, in particular by Saudi Arabia.
On the other hand, experts are increasingly talking about the dangers of «energy monoculture». Excessive dependence on hydroelectric power plants makes the country’s energy system vulnerable to climate change, which can lead to low river water and reduced electricity generation. Seasonal fluctuations in flow also create problems, leading to energy shortages in winter, when consumption increases and hydroelectric power generation falls. Diversifying the energy portfolio by harnessing solar and wind energy could significantly improve the sustainability and reliability of energy supply. Tajikistan, which has about 300 sunny days a year, has enormous but virtually untapped potential for the development of solar energy.
According to the report, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in energy requires a fundamental shift in energy production, distribution and consumption, supported by significant investment and sound policies. The document notes that the installed capacity of renewable energy sources in the world reached a record 478 watts per capita in 2023. However, this progress is extremely uneven. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa this figure is only 40 watts per capita, which allows only basic needs to be met. Tajikistan, relying on gigantic, capital-intensive and long-term hydroelectric power projects, is missing out on the possibility of rapid and less costly deployment of solar and wind installations that could speed up the electrification of remote areas and create new jobs.
Let us recall that at the end of last year, the international environmental coalition «Rivers without Boundaries» in its report also pointed to the powerful untapped potential of solar and wind energy for Tajikistan. Based on calculations of different scenarios, environmentalists came to the conclusion that the combination of the development of large-scale solar generation in Tajikistan, coupled with the completion of a smaller-scale Rogun hydroelectric power station, could make it possible to completely cover the winter electricity shortage in the country by 2030–2031. In addition, diversification of energy sources within Tajikistan’s unified energy system will also significantly reduce risks for the energy and economic sectors, increasing its resilience to climate change.
The report «Tracking SDG 7» calls on governments and international partners to step up efforts to implement all types of clean energy so that no one is left behind. Global trends clearly show that the future of energy — lies in a balanced mix of different renewable sources. For Tajikistan, this means that ignoring solar and wind energy may be a strategic miscalculation that will slow down the achievement of full energy independence and sustainable economic growth. Reliance solely on water resources, albeit huge ones, in the 21st century looks like a bet on the past in a world that already lives on the energy of the future.
Thus, Dushanbe faces a serious dilemma: continue to invest all resources in ambitious hydroprojects, hoping for their payback in the long term, or adjust course and begin to actively develop the richest resources of the sun and wind, following global trends and ensuring a more balanced and sustainable energy future for its citizens. As the report shows, the second path today looks more reliable and promising for achieving universal access to low-cost, reliable and modern energy.
Alexander Eskendirov (Rivers.Help!)
