Uzbekistan’s external debt totaled $60.2bn as of September 30, as to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan publication on the balance of payments, international investment position, and external debt for the first nine months of 2024.
The external debt comprises both public and private debt, with the public external debt amounting to $32.5bn and private external debt standing at $27.7bn. The private debt category largely includes companies and banks with significant state ownership, such as UzAuto Motors, Uzbekneftegaz, the National Bank of Uzbekistan (NBU), and SQB. Collectively, these entities have issued billions of dollars in debt securities in recent years.
Since the beginning of 2024, the total external debt has increased by $7.2bn. At the end of 2023, Uzbekistan’s external debt stood at $53bn, with public debt accounting for $29.7bn and private debt for $23.3bn.
Private external debt has been the primary driver of growth in total external debt over the past two years.
Debt Projections and Risks
In 2025, Uzbekistan’s public debt is projected to rise from $39.7bn to $45bn, an increase of 13.3%. The cost of servicing this debt is expected to grow by 42.8%, reaching 48.1 trillion soums (approximately $3.5bn), according to previous reports.
A recent S&P report highlighted Uzbekistan’s increased investment in energy, mining, infrastructure projects, and social spending. These initiatives have contributed to an annual growth rate of net public debt (including government-guaranteed debt) of 6.3% of GDP from 2020 to 2023.
Analysts predict that total public debt, including government-guaranteed debt, will rise from 34% of GDP in 2023 to 43% of GDP by 2027. Uzbekistan’s Law on Public Debt, adopted in April 2023, establishes a permanent debt ceiling at 60% of GDP and mandates corrective measures if debt exceeds 50% of GDP.
The S&P report also noted risks associated with government-related entities (GREs), which have borrowed in foreign currency to finance energy and infrastructure projects.
“We note some risks of a possible shift of unsecured debt of government-related entities (GREs), which amounted to about 4.6% of GDP in 2024, to the government’s balance sheet,” the report stated.
