Central Asia is experiencing population growth, increased economic needs and severe water scarcity. Regional experts note that the development of critical water infrastructure requires closer coordination between Central Asian governments and international aid organizations.
Wesley Alexander Hill, a leading analyst at the International Tax and Investment Center, said at a recent Atlantic Council forum in Washington that solving Central Asia’s water problems is impossible without a political settlement of regional issues that require a unique degree of regional integration. He explains that the sources of the main rivers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan largely depend on sources in Russia, China and Afghanistan. Hill also draws attention to the China «Belt and Road» initiative, which includes investments in Kazakhstan’s water resources, and the construction of the Kosh Tepa Canal in Afghanistan, which threatens to reduce water flows from the Hindu Kush to downstream countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Central Asian governments have been seeking water agreements with Moscow, Beijing and Kabul for many years. Hill notes that upgrading water infrastructure in these countries opens up economic opportunities. He argues that investing in the water infrastructure and resources of Central Asia – is not a charitable project, but a potentially profitable enterprise that can benefit not only Chinese and Russian companies, but also American and European companies, for example, in the field of canal reconstruction.
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez, president of Second Floor Strategies, emphasized in his speech the need for «realistic and rational policy recommendations» to achieve water security in Central Asia. It encourages local governments to adopt technologies such as water measurement systems, drip irrigation and «grey» water recycling. Sanchez also calls on policymakers to ensure accountability and transparency given the well-documented levels of corruption and embezzlement in Central Asia. It proposes that water security projects be monitored by international audit agencies to build public confidence.
The Atlantic Council panellists also proposed restructuring the Interstate Water Coordination Commission (ICWC) of the region, established in 1992, into a more effective Central Asian Water Council or permanent administrative office. Central Asian governments already have their own initiatives. For example, Tajikistan is leading the «Dushanbe Water Process», and Kazakhstan plans to host the Central Asian Water and Environmental Summit next year.
Sanchez and his colleagues call on the Central Asian republics whose representatives attended the forum to cooperate not only with the United States, but also with European and Asian partners, including the Netherlands, France, South Korea and Japan. Sanchez recognizes that achieving unity and cooperation remains a challenge given regional geopolitics and domestic priorities. He argues that no Central Asian state can achieve full water security and independence without cooperation with its neighbors and significant improvements in water management.
For decades, international organizations and researchers have warned of an environmental disaster unfolding in Central Asia, particularly the drying up of the Aral Sea, which has lost much of its volume since the 1960s. The Caspian Sea, the region’s only remaining large body of water, is also drying up.
Ariel Cohen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who also participated in the discussion, pointed to the deteriorating water infrastructure in Central Asia as a key problem. He notes that large volumes of water are lost due to the fact that modern irrigation technologies are not used. According to him, Soviet-era canals or even pre-Soviet traditional canals are still used, which are simply dug into the ground without any protection from evaporation or dispersion. Cohen is confident that moving to piped water distribution, drip irrigation and sprinklers will save probably 50% of water consumption and bring the region closer to much more balanced water management.
Experts estimate the cost of modernization at billions of dollars, and the question of sources of financing remains open. Cohen suggests that if funding does not come from the US, it will come from someone else. In his opinion, at best it will be the Europeans, and at worst – the Chinese. Other analysts who listened to the discussion note that it is not yet clear whether the Trump administration, with its policies «America first», will support such participation.
Wilder Alejandro Sanchez notes that often when discussing relations between the United States and Central Asia, the main focus is on the big picture. He believes that it is necessary to diversify interaction between the United States and Central Asia. In his opinion, ensuring water security and protecting the environment are high-impact initiatives that will not only strengthen ties, but also improve the image of the United States in Central Asia. Sanchez says the US wants the people of Central Asia to see them as friends.
