Kyrgyzstan announced the completion of its part of the large-scale international energy project CASA-1000 in Central Asia. Recently, the country’s power engineers supplied voltage to the high-voltage power transmission line Datka-Sugd 500 kV, which physically connected the power systems of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Minister of Energy of Kyrgyzstan Taalaibek Ibraev confirms this fact, emphasizing that all construction work related to this megaproject on the territory of the republic has been completely completed. He characterizes CASA-1000 as one of the key projects implemented jointly with the World Bank, and expresses the hope that such initiatives will become the basis for overcoming energy shortages in the future. However, the focus on energy exports raises questions about priorities for the use of valuable water resources.
According to the minister’s statements, in the future, Kyrgyzstan expects to annually export about half a billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to the countries of South Asia. This figure looks especially impressive against the backdrop of domestic consumption (since November last year, Kyrgyzstan began importing electricity from China, and since the beginning of the year has increased purchases of electricity from Kazakhstan by 8%). At the same time, it is persistently emphasized that we are talking exclusively about the «surplus» energy generated in Kyrgyzstan. These surpluses are generated by the republic’s hydroelectric power plants in the summer, from May to September. It is at this time that Kyrgyzstan releases water from its reservoirs, accumulated over winter and spring, to meet the irrigation needs of neighboring countries – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Thus, the project directly links energy exports to water management, which in the context of Central Asia, a region with growing water scarcity and fragile ecosystems, requires particularly close attention and assessment of long-term consequences.
The CASA-1000 project itself, officially launched in the spring of 2016, involves the creation of an interstate energy network that will connect the four countries. On the one hand – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the countries of the upper reaches, where the vital rivers of Central Asia originate, feeding the entire region. The project is positioned as a tool to transform these countries into a kind of regional energy powers through the export of hydropower. On the other hand – Afghanistan and Pakistan, which are experiencing electricity shortages and are target markets. The scheme raises concerns that the economic benefits of energy exports may prevail over the need for sustainable water management and the conservation of river ecosystems.
To implement its part of the project, Kyrgyzstan had to carry out significant infrastructure work: build a new substation, modernize existing facilities to ensure the stability of the energy system and lay more than 450 kilometers of high-voltage power lines. This inevitably involves impacts on landscapes and land use. Tajikistan, in turn, built three converter stations and extended about 250 kilometers of power lines, connecting the Kyrgyz section with the future Afghan one. At the end of last year, power engineers from both countries successfully tested the created infrastructure.
The government of Tajikistan also expresses confidence that participation in CASA-1000 will allow the country to become a leading exporter of so-called «green» electricity in the region. There are ambitious plans to achieve supply volumes of up to 10 billion kilowatt-hours per year over several years. However, labeling hydropower as absolutely «clean» raises questions among environmentalists, because the construction and operation of large hydroelectric power stations have a significant impact on river ecosystems, change the hydrological regime, affect biodiversity and can lead to flooding of territories.
Despite the completion of construction work in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the full-scale launch of the CASA-1000 project has not yet taken place. The international grid is not expected to be operational until next year. The delay is due to the need to complete infrastructure construction in Pakistan and, most critically, Afghanistan. The future of the entire project largely depends on the situation in Kabul, since the longest section of the international power line – about 575 kilometers – should pass through the territory of Afghanistan. There are suggestions that its construction could be completed before the end of this year, but geopolitical instability introduces an element of uncertainty.
The total cost of the CASA-1000 project is estimated at approximately $1.2 billion. A significant part of these funds is provided to participants in the form of loans from international financial institutions. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan plan to pay off these debts using income from future electricity exports. Kyrgyzstan is convinced that the costs of the project will be recouped within 15 years. This economic model, based on the export of natural resources (in this case – electricity produced using water resources), requires careful analysis for long-term sustainability and possible risks associated with fluctuations in energy prices and changes in the availability of water resources under the influence of climate change.
Alexander Eskendirov (Rivers.Help!)
