The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has released preliminary forecasts for the country’s balance of payments in 2025, based on both baseline and alternative scenarios. The forecasts are part of a detailed review covering the balance of payments, international investment position, and external debt.
Baseline Scenario
Under the baseline scenario, the Central Bank anticipates moderate economic growth among Uzbekistan’s key trading partners in 2025. According to IMF projections:
- China: 4.5% (down from 4.8% in 2024)
- Russia: 1.3% (down from 3.6%)
- Turkey: 2.7% (down from 3.6%)
- Kazakhstan: 4.6% (up from 3.5%)
Prices for key export commodities such as gold, silver, copper, and uranium are expected to remain stable amidst global geopolitical and economic uncertainties. A slight increase in global cotton prices is anticipated following reduced supply in 2024.
Uzbekistan’s export revenues are forecasted to grow by 9–11% in 2025, supported by ongoing reforms in the tourism and IT sectors. Imports, driven by GDP growth of 5.5–6%, are expected to rise by 8–10%, largely due to increased demand for machinery, vehicles, petroleum products, and raw materials.
Positive trends in labor migration, including higher wages in host countries and the expansion of migration to high-income destinations, are expected to boost international remittances by 10–12%.
Improved global financial conditions, including easing interest rates, are likely to lower external debt servicing costs. The Central Bank projects an 8–10% increase in the positive balance of primary and secondary income, which will help mitigate the trade balance deficit.
The current account deficit is expected to reach 5–6.5% of GDP by the end of 2025. This deficit will be financed through foreign direct investments (FDIs) in energy, mining, and other key industries, portfolio investments (such as Eurobond placements), and external borrowing.
The alternative scenario projects a higher current account deficit, ranging from 6.5–8% of GDP, influenced by several factors:
- Geopolitical tensions: Increased fragmentation in international trade may reduce economic activity among key trading partners, leading to weaker external demand.
- Commodity price fluctuations: Declines in global prices for metals, cotton, and food products could affect export revenues.
- Inflation and monetary policy: Rising global inflation and tighter monetary policies could increase the cost of servicing external debt and reduce foreign investment inflows.
- Remittance challenges: Currency volatility and payment disruptions in countries hosting migrant workers could lower cross-border remittances.
The alternative scenario also anticipates higher import volumes due to rising aggregate demand from consumer spending and investment projects. Key imports would include machinery, vehicles, energy resources, and raw materials.
